My Unbiased Predictions

I have just about had my fill of “Game of the Century” talk. As a college football blogger, as well as a huge LSU Tiger fan, I feel that I should post something regarding the upcoming game between LSU and the University of Alabama. After all, it is number one against number two and yes it should live up to a lot of the hype. But it is still just a regular season game. I am sure that both coaches are repeating that mantra over and over again to his team

As you know, I am and will always be a huge LSU “homer”. No one would seriously consider my spin on the game because of that fact. But I am going to offer my take regardless and I suppose you just have to except that I am not being biased.

The national media would just as soon see teams in the BCS Title game from conferences other than the Southeastern. The idea of two teams from not only the same conference but also the same division of that conference is totally not acceptable. Although I do not believe there will be a rematch between LSU and Alabama I feel that there should be one if the two are indeed the two top teams in America.

With that said I am herby declaring that the winner of aforementioned game will be one of the two teams to play in the upcoming BCS National Championship Game (BCSNCG) and I do not see another single team in America who would come close to defeating them. In other words the winner of this weekend’s game will be the next National Champion and yes I realize that means six in a row for the SEC. I will also go on record and state that the loser of this game will play in a BCS Bowl game and it too will be in New Orleans. After this game LSU, has Ole Miss, Western Kentucky and ArKansas remaining on their schedule. Only ArKansas has a decent chance of defeating the Tigers. Alabama only has Mississippi State, Georgia State and Auburn on their remaining schedule and Auburn only has a remote chance of victory. (A very remote chance.)

Who ever wins this game will be the West Division’s champ to play either South Carolina or Georgia in the SEC Title game. There is no way that the East Champ escapes that game without a rout against them. If Alabama wins this weekend, they will be undefeated going into the BCS Championship Game. If LSU wins, They would still find themselves in the BCS Championship Game even if they lost to ArKansas.

Now I guess you can lean back on your haunches and exclaim “Say What?”

It is simply a fact. Both LSU and Alabama are vastly superior to any other college team in America. I must say that no team, including both the Tigers and the Tide are impervious to defeat. Stranger things have happened, but I have to say that these two teams are absolutely the most talented teams this year. In all likelihood one of the two best teams in American will not be able to play in the BCSNCG. They will be like Florida was when they watched a vastly inferior Texas team take their place back in January 2010.

So now let’s see who will be the opponent of either LSU or Alabama in the BCSNCG.

We can start with the current undefeated teams:

Oklahoma State

Stanford

Boise State

Houston

Forget Houston, it simply is not going to happen. Who cares if they remain undefeated. They are Conference USA. Stanford still is scheduled to face Oregon and I feel Oregon can defeat the Cardinal. If Stanford defeats Oregon, they are a lock for the BCS National Championship Game and no other team has a remote chance other than the aforementioned LSU and Alabama. Yes, they will still have to face Arizona State in Pac 12 Championship Game but I do not see them losing. On the other hand should Oregon defeat Stanford, I do not see the Ducks in the BCSNCG since LSU thrashed them in Jerry’s World. My pick for the Pac 12 champion is Oregon and I predict they are destined for the Rose Bowl to play Nebraska. I predict Stanford will find it’s way to New Orleans to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Boise State? No way in Hell!! Their chants of “but we defeated a SEC Georgia team” is falling on deaf ears. My answer to their war cry is “So ?” Georgia is at, best the fourth best team in the SEC and I personally feel that they lay behind Alabama, LSU, Arkansas. South Carolina and Auburn. Boise State’s cupcake schedule and it’s only “signature” win against a middle of the pack Georgia team (plus the fact they do not play a conference championship game) does not merit a berth in the BCSNCG. Anyone who remotely buys into the Bronco’s argument is a fool. A two loss SEC team or a one loss team from any other BCSAQ conference (with the exception of the Big East Conference) is far more deserving to play for the National Championship. I realize their schedule is not completely their fault but it still does not support them playing for the National Championship.

Oklahoma State….First of all I have mad love for the Cowboys. They have an amazing offense but their defense is middle of the road at best. I feel the Sooners will win in the Bedlam Game and since neither team has a championship game to look forward to, I feel they either one of them will be looked over for the BCSNCG unless Oregon wins the Big 12. The Cowboys can only find a way into the BCSNCG if they go 12-0 and if Stanford does not runs the table. Ok I realize that OSU is setting at number 3 in the current BCS poll but an undefeated 13-0 Stanford with a highly prompted Oliver Luck will trump a 12-0 OSU every time. I think the Cowboys will still find themselves on the outside looking in. At least they will be invited to play in a BCS bowl and they will get some lovely parting gifts. Actually, like I said I do not believe the Cowboys will be undefeated.

I must mention a few one loss teams too.

Nebraska . They would have to win out and Stanford lose to Oregon and OSU lose to Oklahoma and they would have to have a very impressive win in the Big Ten Championship Game. Even then it might still be too close to call. The pounding they took by Wisconsin may be enough to tank their chances. A one loss Oregon team, or Oklahoma team will get the nod every time over the Huskers.

Clemson. For Get It. Their day in the sun is over. They had their Clemson moment and it bit them in the ass. Their chances to play in the BCSNCG are non existent. They will still have to play Ga Tech again in order to get an invite to the Orange Bowl to play a two or three loss Big East Team.

Penn State. If for some amazing chance that they were to win out. I am sure a lot of people would love to see Joe Pa and company play in the BCSNCG. But even with them winning out, they would have to see Oregon, Stanford, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma all being upset before the end of the season. It just ain’t gonna happen. Even if it did, and Alabama wins this weekend, a rematch would never happen.

Oregon. These guys have a slim chance provided Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State. Of course they would have to win the remainder of their games, plus the Pac 12 Championship. Their And they would never play LSU in a rematch, and as I mentioned above, I am not sure their early loss to LSU will be overlooked.

Arkansas. No rematches so they can forget it.

Oklahoma. They need to win out and hope Stanford loses a game along the way.

Kansas State. Only if they win out, Stanford loses, Oregon loses, Oklahoma State loses, Oklahoma loses again, Nebraska loses, Clemson loses, Penn State loses, Houston loses and Boise State’s plane is grounded.

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So I have listed the path for one of the teams to the BCSNCG. My gut feeling is that it will be Oklahoma

So now to the good stuff

If Alabama wins this Saturday, they will not lose another game this year, including the BCSNCG.

If LSU wins this Saturday, they could lose one game (ArKansas) but they will still play in SEC Championship and BCSNCG. I do not think that the Razorbacks will defeat the Tigers but I would say that the Hogs have a better chance to defeat LSU than War Eagle does to defeat the Tide in this year’s Iron Bowl.

For this weekends game…….

Alabama should have a slight home field advantage but this advantage is very slight.

I accept that Alabama defeated a pretty good Penn State team in Happy Valley, but keep this in mind, other than this upcoming game this weekend, the most highly hyped game of this season was the Game between Oregon and LSU where the Tigers made a very good Oregon Duck team appear hapless. So I give Big Game experience to Advantage Tigers.

Alabama has larger line backers and I am giving an advantage to Bama but LSU has more offensive potential so this advantage will somewhat diluted.

The defensive secondary of both teams are stellar but because of their speed and overall aggressiveness, I give the advantage to LSU.

I also am giving LSU a slight advantage on offensive line. I do this because of the two large beasts who play fullback and the experience of T Bob Hebert.

I give a huge advantage to LSU for special teams.

Although many would not think a two quarterback system would be superior to what Alabama has, I have seen that by some strange miracle, it does work for LSU. With that said, the combination of two diverse styled quarterbacks give LSU a distinct advantage.

If Trent Richardson is allowed to play the game his is capable of playing, the advantage of running back would be heavy for Alabama. But his back up is not very well defined and should he be stopped by The Chief’s defense, then the Running Back advantage will shift to the Tigers. They have no less than four running backs who each can potentially put up over 100 yards rushing. Like the two quarterback system, the multiple running back scheme may very well be what wins the game for the Tigers.

LSU also gets the advantage nod with their bevy of receivers. Yes Alabama has Marqueis Mayes but OBJ33, RR2, RS10 and DP19 will be everywhere. Look for a huge game from Russell Sheppard. A huge game!

On first glance, one might think that Nick Saban is a far superior coach than Les Miles. He epitomizes a college coach. His statue, resume and physique grabs your attention. He is well spoken and he exudes football knowledge. He is the man everyman wants his son to play under.

Coach Miles comes off as a goof, a grass eating buffoon, and a fly by the seat of your pants lucky bastard. And that is exactly how Miles wants you to believe. Critics tend to always bring up a clock management situation that happened nearly three years ago in one football game, yet those same individuals fail to notice Les’s winning percentage. They simply pass off such success as happenstance. The fact is that Les Miles has routinely won games with good old fashion coaching and not blind luck as they assume. He and his teams thrive on high impact games. As a recruiter he promises games such as the upcoming game with the Tide and he delivers on his promise. He stands by and he stands up for his players. At the end of each game he selects a player to stand next to him as the team all sings the LSU Alma Mater. (which ends with the phrase “forever LSU”) You may want your son to play for Nick Sabin but your son wants to play for Les Miles. If you look closely, you might see a man who is actually having fun. He truly feels blessed to be the Head Coach of his Damn Strong Team. If you fall for the Mad Hatter’s grass eating spin, you just might find yourself victimized by Lesticles and on the losing end of a game, just as most of Miles past foes have. LSU lives on pressure and controversy. Bench you leading tackler and leading rusher and simply insert other stars to thrash the defending National Champion. Bench your starting quarterback and dominate not one but two teams who were each projected to win their respective conferences. That wry smile of Lester’s is there for a reason. He knows something that you simply do not know or ever will understand. The National press tends to have fun with his quirkiness and he embraces it. He actually drives his children to school each day and attends his son’s football games on Friday nights. He is a proud father as he watches his son Manny score a touchdown or his daughter Macy sing the Star Spangled Banner. He is a real man. Fake Punts, End sweeps and fourth down plays are less of gambling than you can possibly imagine. They are part of an actual game plan. He can and will rip your arm off and then beat you to a slow agonizing death with it as that smile become a heart felt laugh. And keep this gem in mind as you watch Coach Miles frolic on the side lines. Next year’s team is projected to be significantly better than this year’s team. The Tigers’ cupcake schedule next year looks like something only Deloss Dodd would conjure up for his University of Texas Longhorns. And finally take a close look at that man with the white LSU cap. His pick for offensive coordinator learned that he had Parkinson’s Disease during Summer drills, his starting quarterback is involved in an off campus altercation and is suspended only a week before the opening game of the season. One of his leading receivers is suspended in an NCAA inquiry mater that surrounds several other college football teams, His leading rusher and leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy award are forced to set out a game due to involvement with synthetic pot. He sister is tragically killed in an auto accident mere weeks before Summer Drills. All of this yet his team is 8-0 while winning each previous game by double digits. This coach is the head coach of the Number One ranked team in America and is about to coach in what everyone is calling the Game of The Century. Be honest for once, is Les Miles a fool or were you the fool to think that he was? Nick Sabin on the other hand tends to be more business and cerebral. No one would dare to make jokes about Little Nicky. He does not give the tone or the impression that he would ever allow it. He is a handsome man but his smile is scary. It seemed forced and ill begotten. On a second look you might find that and his team tends to lose their composure when their opponents simply don’t roll over and quit. They do not play a full 60 minutes. They have been so good this year that they have never had to. Don’t get me wrong, his teams are well coached and they will punch you in the mouth. They will beat you and they will beat you bad. But if you look at their history, they don’t seem to be able to take a punch themselves. Just look at last year’s Iron Bowl for starters. I admit as much as I really like Les Miles at LSU but I am a huge Coach Nick Saban fan as well. I realize a lot of LSU faithful tend to demonize Coach Sabin but I am grateful for all that his did for LSU. Most of my readers do not know who Paul Dietzel is but he too led the Tigers to a National Championship (1958) and then left to coach somewhere else (Army). He is now revered in Baton Rouge. I am sure one day Nick Sabin will be looked at in a whole different light as well. Coaching Advantage, LSU

Even though I have given most advantages to LSU, I must admit many of such advantages are slight. For this reason there are several X factors that should be considered. Alabama has a Heisman candidate in Trent Richardson and Marquis Mayes could very well make a huge impact on the game. LSU has a multitude of individuals who might put his stamp on the game. Mo Claiborne, the Freak, Mingo, Brokers, Jarvis Landry and The Honey Badger should be considered as well as Ruben Randle and Odell Beckham, Jr. But I truly believe that LSU’s number 10 Russell Sheppard is going to have a break out game. It simply is his time. Remember he was a Five Star Recruit as a quarterback. Both teams have won every game they have played in this year and they have done so convincingly. Neither team has had any real experience in coming from behind and the team that keeps it’s composure will have a huge advantage. Now I prefaced this blog with the fact that I would be impartial and unbiased. To be honest I was. I am just very confident. So with all of my posturing I predict that LSU will win the game based on my belief that the Tigers has more potential game breakers and thus they would have a statistical advantage. I believe the score will be rather close during the first half with the Tigers having a slight lead but LSU will open it up in the third quarter. Coach Miles will take his foot off of the gas midway through the last quarter and cruise on to win by a score of 37-20 with the last touchdown of Alabama’s be given up in the last two minutes of the game. After the game the national media will give LSU a significant amount of credit but you will also hear a lot about Stanford and it’s wunderkind Luck.

But Wait there is more. There is also another SEC game with both teams in the top ten being played Saturday night.

I predict Arkansas will finally look real good in victory as compared to the last two weeks. With USC’s loss, Georgia will begin to emerge as the probable SEC East Champion and as a result the Boise State chant will continue to manifest.

So are you still with me; So here are my BCS predictions

Rose Bowl

Big Ten vs Pac 12

Oregon vs --winner Oregon

Fiesta Bowl

Big 12 vs at large

Oklahoma State vs Boise State winner-- Oklahoma State

Sugar Bowl

SEC vs at large

Alabama vs Stanford winner-- Alabama

Orange Bowl

ACC vs Big East

Ga Tech vs West Virginia winner--West Virginia

BCSNCG

LSU vs Oklahoma winner-- LSU Les Miles is 2-1 versus Bob Stoops and it will soon be 3-1

Roll Tide but Geaux Tigers

The Third

Fanship

I have waited for the eventual shakeup of the college football conference realignment "cluster". After a considerable waiting period I have come to the conclusion that the saga is perpetual.

Those who know me, realize that I am not one to be short winded or do I exhibit brevity. I do not tweet since I am incapable of containing and condensing my thoughts. I realize my flaws may dissuade potential readers but I want to be honest.

My writing style is disjointed and sometimes pretty convoluted. I am guilty of hyperbole sprinkled with a little Texas Bullshit, but what I write is historically factual or least (depending what I say), opinionated. I have been accused of being insensitive and sarcastic. I do not deny it but honestly speaking, I rarely intend insensitivity or sarcasm. It only is interpreted that way. So, I suppose what I am saying is that “perhaps it is not what I said but rather what you heard”. Should I be held accountable for your inability to truly understand what I am saying? Damn…I have started it already.

With my mea culpa and caveat thus said, I shall commence ….

So what is a fan?

I am a fan. I am a fan of a lot of things but for this blog I suppose I will admit I am a college football fan, specifically a LSU Fighting Tigers Fan.

A little history.

My father’s mother Bessie was born in 1899 in the small farming community of Lacassine, ( pronounced lack-ah- seen) located in Jefferson Davis Parish, Louisiana. Her grandfather, my great great grandfather Ruffin Meloncon (pronounced muh lawn sawn) attended Louisiana State Seminary of Learning & Military Academy in Pineville. My grandmother’s father, a graduate of the same school died when she was only three years of age. Her mother remarried a man named William Jennings who served as the Parish Extension Agent. He too was a graduate of Louisiana State University. In 1915 when she was only 16 years old, my grandmother, along with her older brother James, left their home and attended school at the Pentagon Barracks of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. My grandmother was one of only a handful of female students at the small school located on the banks of the Mississippi River. Her brother became a member of the LSU Corp of Cadets, as was required of all male students. After about a year, the United States entered World War I. Nearly all of the male student body and members of the LSU Corp of Cadets enlisted in military service. My uncle James was commissioned a Second Lieutenant and was eventually sent to Europe to fight in the “front”.

My grandmother Bessie eventually received a “degree” (Home Studies) from LSU. She was working at a worker’s camp near Pleasant Hill, Louisiana when she met my grandfather.

Her brother James was mortally wounded in France in early 1917 and is buried at a small country cemetery near Marthaville, Louisiana. My grandmother and my grandfather are also buried in the same cemetery.

Beginning in 1926, the campus of LSU was moved from the Pentagon Barracks to a 2,000 acre former dairy farm on the South side of Baton Rouge. The very first structure constructed on the site was a 175 foot clock tower (known as the Campanille). The tower was funded by the American Legion of Louisiana and is a memorial to the 1,447 fallen World War I Louisiana soldiers. The same year, 1926, thirty live oak trees were planted near the center of the future campus. The trees were planted as a memorial to the 29 former students who lost their life in WWI and the 30^th tree as a memorial to those former students who were Missing in Action. On the bronze rotunda inside the tower and on a granite monument at the base of one of those thirty trees is the name Lt. James Ruffin Meloncon, my great uncle.

In 1942 my father who was seventeen at the time, enrolled at the Ole War Skule. As his great grand father, grandfather, step grandfather and uncle did before him, he became a member of the LSU Corp of Cadets He had begun his second year of school (majoring in Pre Dentistry) when he was “drafted” in the United States Army. After the war, my father elected to pursue his college education elsewhere.

In the fall of 1969, I enrolled at the same school many of my ancestors had. Beginning that year, the requirement to be a member of the Corps was no longer a prerequisite of male students at LSU. I was relieved by that fact. The day I was to register and choose classes, my father actually showed up at my dormitory room and promptly informed me that I still had to join the Corps. I was reluctant and I argued my “case” but eventually my father escorted me to both the Camanille and the Memorial Grove. Up until then I did not know about my great uncle. Later that day I became fifth generation in my family to become a member of the LSU Corps of Cadets……

I was an eight year old third grader in Mrs. Thigpen’s class at Pelican Elementary School. For days, my class mates and I did nothing but talk about the upcoming Saturday night wherein we planned to go Trick or Treating. It was going to be my first outing on Halloween night. My mother had purchased a Superman mask for me and made me a cape out of an old sheet. As I got off Mr. Gregory’s bus on October 30, my whole world seem to come to an end. I was informed that I would not be going Trick of Treating and that we would be driving up to Shreveport and spending the night with my Aunt Pete and Uncle Jay. My dad I would be traveling by train the next morning to go to a football game down South. I cried all the way to Shreveport and I cried myself to sleep. I had really been looking forward to Trick or Treating. I had no idea what football was nor I did not want to go see some guy by the name of Ellis Shoe

Around eight o’clock the next morning we boarded the Tiger Train... I was still disappointed but the thought of riding a train was pretty cool too.

In LSU folk lore, the game of Halloween Night 1959 between defending national champion and number one ranked LSU and the number three ranked University of Mississippi was one of, if not the best, games ever played at Tiger Stadium. Thousands of people claim to have been there. I actually was there. The final score ended at 7-3 LSU with the eventual Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon running 89 yards from a 3rd down punt reception to a touchdown. To this day, over fifty years later, the sports announcer’s account of that play is played repeatedly over multiple radio stations in the Baton Rouge area. leading up to the annual LSU - Ole Miss game.

To be honest, I do not recall much from the game. I remember that it was foggy and very loud. I remember seeing a real live Tiger in a cage. I remember that my cousin Donny picked us up at the Baton Rouge train station. He had a convertible and it was the first time I recall riding in one. I was very impressed.

That game, or should I say, that experience, was a true epiphany. That moment in time transformed me into a lifelong fan. Let me change that. That night I became a Fan.

That night I was “baptized” in a sacred river of Purple.

In September, nearly ten years later, as I gazed at my uncle’s name engraved in bronze and granite, I was “confirmed” with the holy Gold chrism to become a true LSU Tiger Fan. LSU is embedded into my very soul and DNA. My passion for LSU and their athletics remain just as fierce.

Ok I realize that I have dwelled upon myself some here. It was my intent to qualify myself as a “fan”. Fans are the ultimate subject of this blog. I have the utmost respect for a true fan, regardless of whom you are a fan. On the other hand I have the utmost contempt for someone who simply poses as a fan.

Over the course of this blog I will address this issue in a lot more detail.

Geaux,

The Third

Geaux

This is the inaugural posting of my second blog. My other blog "The Brew Chronicles" is still around. Although I have not posted much on it of late, I expect one day I will.

I give credit to my son in law (The Jim) for inspiring me to create my first blog and to be honest it was his inspiration for me to commence my second one. Now my ego can really run rampant. Two Blogs!

Ok, enough with the self platitudes and gratitudes... This blog will address the topic of College Football. Now I realize that those of you who actually know me, know that I tend to be somewhat biased and nonobjective regarding this topic. Even though I bleed purple and gold, I hope to prove you wrong and at the same time say some things that I feel need to actually be in print. But from time to time I may still utter Geaux.

I intend on expressing my opinion here. If you do not agree, I hope that you take the time to write your objections in the "reply" area. In fact, I encourage you to. I will be blunt and from time to time I will say things intended to incite you. I call it "smack"..... But all in all I want to express my proposal to improve College Football. I intend to "call out" the "posers" . I plan on stating if the king is indeed naked and not wearing invisible clothes. I plan on saying things that need to be said. I will suggest some radical changes and what seems to be rather complex rules. But if you will give me a chance, I am convinced my "plan" is indeed a workable one. I intend to cut through the "bull shit" and "call a spade a spade". Please do not think I am either a racist or insensitive. I will be straight forward and direct. If it offends you, I only ask that you take the time to consider what I am saying before you pass judgement upon me.

College football is first and foremost "a sport". Yes, it is a very popular sport. Yes it is a business. It is a very complex sport. It is in our "National DNA". I agree there are many other "sports". I mean no disrespect nor will I claim that college football in superior. It happens to be my favorite college sport, but that is just my opinion. This blog's central focus is college football so it will the central topic.

Collegiate sports are an ingrained aspect of the American way of life. The biggest single sport is American football. The game first "game" ( resembling the sport of rugby) contested on a field in New Jersey, is now being played in mammoth gridiron cathedrals. College football is a billion dollar industry. It is vastly complex. Lately it has been viewed as either a headless monster or a beast with many faces.

I realize that “conference realignment” seems to be the hot topic of late. I realize that when it all boils down to the basics, it always comes down to money. From the ribbons the spectators wore at that contest between Rutgers College and The College of New Jersey (Princeton) to $ 300 million College Sports Networks. College football has became "tradition". The professional variety of the sport needed to emulate such traditions and created a few of their own along the way. But such traditions are always a respectful imitation.

Since this is my first posting on this blog, I am listing several of the future topics to be addressed including conference realignment, NCAA rules, scandal, and tradition.:

1. Everyone wants a champion.
2. Once you win, you are defending
3. If you Win a Lot You Must Be Cheating
4. Black and White
   
5. What Is and What Isn’t Cheating
6. The Haves and Have Nots
7. Sponsors, Boosters and Benifactors
   
8. The Easy Way, The Hard Way
9. Opinions
10. Traditions
11. A Not So Painless Solution
12. Sports Broadcasting
13. Politics
14. Careers

The list will go on

Rah Rah Rah Go Team Geaux


The Third