I have just about had my fill of “Game of the Century” talk. As a college football blogger, as well as a huge LSU Tiger fan, I feel that I should post something regarding the upcoming game between LSU and the University of Alabama. After all, it is number one against number two and yes it should live up to a lot of the hype. But it is still just a regular season game. I am sure that both coaches are repeating that mantra over and over again to his team As you know, I am and will always be a huge LSU “homer”. No one would seriously consider my spin on the game because of that fact. But I am going to offer my take regardless and I suppose you just have to except that I am not being biased.
The national media would just as soon see teams in the BCS Title game from conferences other than the Southeastern. The idea of two teams from not only the same conference but also the same division of that conference is totally not acceptable. Although I do not believe there will be a rematch between LSU and Alabama I feel that there should be one if the two are indeed the two top teams in America.
With that said I am herby declaring that the winner of aforementioned game will be one of the two teams to play in the upcoming BCS National Championship Game (BCSNCG) and I do not see another single team in America who would come close to defeating them. In other words the winner of this weekend’s game will be the next National Champion and yes I realize that means six in a row for the SEC. I will also go on record and state that the loser of this game will play in a BCS Bowl game and it too will be in New Orleans. After this game LSU, has Ole Miss, Western Kentucky and ArKansas remaining on their schedule. Only ArKansas has a decent chance of defeating the Tigers. Alabama only has Mississippi State, Georgia State and Auburn on their remaining schedule and Auburn only has a remote chance of victory. (A very remote chance.)
Who ever wins this game will be the West Division’s champ to play either South Carolina or Georgia in the SEC Title game. There is no way that the East Champ escapes that game without a rout against them. If Alabama wins this weekend, they will be undefeated going into the BCS Championship Game. If LSU wins, They would still find themselves in the BCS Championship Game even if they lost to ArKansas.
Now I guess you can lean back on your haunches and exclaim “Say What?”
It is simply a fact. Both LSU and Alabama are vastly superior to any other college team in America. I must say that no team, including both the Tigers and the Tide are impervious to defeat. Stranger things have happened, but I have to say that these two teams are absolutely the most talented teams this year. In all likelihood one of the two best teams in American will not be able to play in the BCSNCG. They will be like Florida was when they watched a vastly inferior Texas team take their place back in January 2010.
So now let’s see who will be the opponent of either LSU or Alabama in the BCSNCG.
We can start with the current undefeated teams:
Oklahoma State
Stanford
Boise State
Houston
Forget Houston, it simply is not going to happen. Who cares if they remain undefeated. They are Conference USA. Stanford still is scheduled to face Oregon and I feel Oregon can defeat the Cardinal. If Stanford defeats Oregon, they are a lock for the BCS National Championship Game and no other team has a remote chance other than the aforementioned LSU and Alabama. Yes, they will still have to face Arizona State in Pac 12 Championship Game but I do not see them losing. On the other hand should Oregon defeat Stanford, I do not see the Ducks in the BCSNCG since LSU thrashed them in Jerry’s World. My pick for the Pac 12 champion is Oregon and I predict they are destined for the Rose Bowl to play Nebraska. I predict Stanford will find it’s way to New Orleans to play in the Sugar Bowl.
Boise State? No way in Hell!! Their chants of “but we defeated a SEC Georgia team” is falling on deaf ears. My answer to their war cry is “So ?” Georgia is at, best the fourth best team in the SEC and I personally feel that they lay behind Alabama, LSU, Arkansas. South Carolina and Auburn. Boise State’s cupcake schedule and it’s only “signature” win against a middle of the pack Georgia team (plus the fact they do not play a conference championship game) does not merit a berth in the BCSNCG. Anyone who remotely buys into the Bronco’s argument is a fool. A two loss SEC team or a one loss team from any other BCSAQ conference (with the exception of the Big East Conference) is far more deserving to play for the National Championship. I realize their schedule is not completely their fault but it still does not support them playing for the National Championship.
Oklahoma State….First of all I have mad love for the Cowboys. They have an amazing offense but their defense is middle of the road at best. I feel the Sooners will win in the Bedlam Game and since neither team has a championship game to look forward to, I feel they either one of them will be looked over for the BCSNCG unless Oregon wins the Big 12. The Cowboys can only find a way into the BCSNCG if they go 12-0 and if Stanford does not runs the table. Ok I realize that OSU is setting at number 3 in the current BCS poll but an undefeated 13-0 Stanford with a highly prompted Oliver Luck will trump a 12-0 OSU every time. I think the Cowboys will still find themselves on the outside looking in. At least they will be invited to play in a BCS bowl and they will get some lovely parting gifts. Actually, like I said I do not believe the Cowboys will be undefeated.
I must mention a few one loss teams too.
Nebraska . They would have to win out and Stanford lose to Oregon and OSU lose to Oklahoma and they would have to have a very impressive win in the Big Ten Championship Game. Even then it might still be too close to call. The pounding they took by Wisconsin may be enough to tank their chances. A one loss Oregon team, or Oklahoma team will get the nod every time over the Huskers.
Clemson. For Get It. Their day in the sun is over. They had their Clemson moment and it bit them in the ass. Their chances to play in the BCSNCG are non existent. They will still have to play Ga Tech again in order to get an invite to the Orange Bowl to play a two or three loss Big East Team.
Penn State. If for some amazing chance that they were to win out. I am sure a lot of people would love to see Joe Pa and company play in the BCSNCG. But even with them winning out, they would have to see Oregon, Stanford, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma all being upset before the end of the season. It just ain’t gonna happen. Even if it did, and Alabama wins this weekend, a rematch would never happen.
Oregon. These guys have a slim chance provided Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State. Of course they would have to win the remainder of their games, plus the Pac 12 Championship. Their And they would never play LSU in a rematch, and as I mentioned above, I am not sure their early loss to LSU will be overlooked.
Arkansas. No rematches so they can forget it.
Oklahoma. They need to win out and hope Stanford loses a game along the way.
Kansas State. Only if they win out, Stanford loses, Oregon loses, Oklahoma State loses, Oklahoma loses again, Nebraska loses, Clemson loses, Penn State loses, Houston loses and Boise State’s plane is grounded.
--------------------------------------------
So I have listed the path for one of the teams to the BCSNCG. My gut feeling is that it will be Oklahoma
So now to the good stuff
If Alabama wins this Saturday, they will not lose another game this year, including the BCSNCG.
If LSU wins this Saturday, they could lose one game (ArKansas) but they will still play in SEC Championship and BCSNCG. I do not think that the Razorbacks will defeat the Tigers but I would say that the Hogs have a better chance to defeat LSU than War Eagle does to defeat the Tide in this year’s Iron Bowl.
For this weekends game…….
Alabama should have a slight home field advantage but this advantage is very slight.
I accept that Alabama defeated a pretty good Penn State team in Happy Valley, but keep this in mind, other than this upcoming game this weekend, the most highly hyped game of this season was the Game between Oregon and LSU where the Tigers made a very good Oregon Duck team appear hapless. So I give Big Game experience to Advantage Tigers.
Alabama has larger line backers and I am giving an advantage to Bama but LSU has more offensive potential so this advantage will somewhat diluted.
The defensive secondary of both teams are stellar but because of their speed and overall aggressiveness, I give the advantage to LSU.
I also am giving LSU a slight advantage on offensive line. I do this because of the two large beasts who play fullback and the experience of T Bob Hebert.
I give a huge advantage to LSU for special teams.
Although many would not think a two quarterback system would be superior to what Alabama has, I have seen that by some strange miracle, it does work for LSU. With that said, the combination of two diverse styled quarterbacks give LSU a distinct advantage.
If Trent Richardson is allowed to play the game his is capable of playing, the advantage of running back would be heavy for Alabama. But his back up is not very well defined and should he be stopped by The Chief’s defense, then the Running Back advantage will shift to the Tigers. They have no less than four running backs who each can potentially put up over 100 yards rushing. Like the two quarterback system, the multiple running back scheme may very well be what wins the game for the Tigers.
LSU also gets the advantage nod with their bevy of receivers. Yes Alabama has Marqueis Mayes but OBJ33, RR2, RS10 and DP19 will be everywhere. Look for a huge game from Russell Sheppard. A huge game!
On first glance, one might think that Nick Saban is a far superior coach than Les Miles. He epitomizes a college coach. His statue, resume and physique grabs your attention. He is well spoken and he exudes football knowledge. He is the man everyman wants his son to play under.
Coach Miles comes off as a goof, a grass eating buffoon, and a fly by the seat of your pants lucky bastard. And that is exactly how Miles wants you to believe. Critics tend to always bring up a clock management situation that happened nearly three years ago in one football game, yet those same individuals fail to notice Les’s winning percentage. They simply pass off such success as happenstance. The fact is that Les Miles has routinely won games with good old fashion coaching and not blind luck as they assume. He and his teams thrive on high impact games. As a recruiter he promises games such as the upcoming game with the Tide and he delivers on his promise. He stands by and he stands up for his players. At the end of each game he selects a player to stand next to him as the team all sings the LSU Alma Mater. (which ends with the phrase “forever LSU”) You may want your son to play for Nick Sabin but your son wants to play for Les Miles. If you look closely, you might see a man who is actually having fun. He truly feels blessed to be the Head Coach of his Damn Strong Team. If you fall for the Mad Hatter’s grass eating spin, you just might find yourself victimized by Lesticles and on the losing end of a game, just as most of Miles past foes have. LSU lives on pressure and controversy. Bench you leading tackler and leading rusher and simply insert other stars to thrash the defending National Champion. Bench your starting quarterback and dominate not one but two teams who were each projected to win their respective conferences. That wry smile of Lester’s is there for a reason. He knows something that you simply do not know or ever will understand. The National press tends to have fun with his quirkiness and he embraces it. He actually drives his children to school each day and attends his son’s football games on Friday nights. He is a proud father as he watches his son Manny score a touchdown or his daughter Macy sing the Star Spangled Banner. He is a real man. Fake Punts, End sweeps and fourth down plays are less of gambling than you can possibly imagine. They are part of an actual game plan. He can and will rip your arm off and then beat you to a slow agonizing death with it as that smile become a heart felt laugh. And keep this gem in mind as you watch Coach Miles frolic on the side lines. Next year’s team is projected to be significantly better than this year’s team. The Tigers’ cupcake schedule next year looks like something only Deloss Dodd would conjure up for his University of Texas Longhorns. And finally take a close look at that man with the white LSU cap. His pick for offensive coordinator learned that he had Parkinson’s Disease during Summer drills, his starting quarterback is involved in an off campus altercation and is suspended only a week before the opening game of the season. One of his leading receivers is suspended in an NCAA inquiry mater that surrounds several other college football teams, His leading rusher and leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy award are forced to set out a game due to involvement with synthetic pot. He sister is tragically killed in an auto accident mere weeks before Summer Drills. All of this yet his team is 8-0 while winning each previous game by double digits. This coach is the head coach of the Number One ranked team in America and is about to coach in what everyone is calling the Game of The Century. Be honest for once, is Les Miles a fool or were you the fool to think that he was? Nick Sabin on the other hand tends to be more business and cerebral. No one would dare to make jokes about Little Nicky. He does not give the tone or the impression that he would ever allow it. He is a handsome man but his smile is scary. It seemed forced and ill begotten. On a second look you might find that and his team tends to lose their composure when their opponents simply don’t roll over and quit. They do not play a full 60 minutes. They have been so good this year that they have never had to. Don’t get me wrong, his teams are well coached and they will punch you in the mouth. They will beat you and they will beat you bad. But if you look at their history, they don’t seem to be able to take a punch themselves. Just look at last year’s Iron Bowl for starters. I admit as much as I really like Les Miles at LSU but I am a huge Coach Nick Saban fan as well. I realize a lot of LSU faithful tend to demonize Coach Sabin but I am grateful for all that his did for LSU. Most of my readers do not know who Paul Dietzel is but he too led the Tigers to a National Championship (1958) and then left to coach somewhere else (Army). He is now revered in Baton Rouge. I am sure one day Nick Sabin will be looked at in a whole different light as well. Coaching Advantage, LSU
Even though I have given most advantages to LSU, I must admit many of such advantages are slight. For this reason there are several X factors that should be considered. Alabama has a Heisman candidate in Trent Richardson and Marquis Mayes could very well make a huge impact on the game. LSU has a multitude of individuals who might put his stamp on the game. Mo Claiborne, the Freak, Mingo, Brokers, Jarvis Landry and The Honey Badger should be considered as well as Ruben Randle and Odell Beckham, Jr. But I truly believe that LSU’s number 10 Russell Sheppard is going to have a break out game. It simply is his time. Remember he was a Five Star Recruit as a quarterback. Both teams have won every game they have played in this year and they have done so convincingly. Neither team has had any real experience in coming from behind and the team that keeps it’s composure will have a huge advantage. Now I prefaced this blog with the fact that I would be impartial and unbiased. To be honest I was. I am just very confident. So with all of my posturing I predict that LSU will win the game based on my belief that the Tigers has more potential game breakers and thus they would have a statistical advantage. I believe the score will be rather close during the first half with the Tigers having a slight lead but LSU will open it up in the third quarter. Coach Miles will take his foot off of the gas midway through the last quarter and cruise on to win by a score of 37-20 with the last touchdown of Alabama’s be given up in the last two minutes of the game. After the game the national media will give LSU a significant amount of credit but you will also hear a lot about Stanford and it’s wunderkind Luck.
But Wait there is more. There is also another SEC game with both teams in the top ten being played Saturday night.
I predict Arkansas will finally look real good in victory as compared to the last two weeks. With USC’s loss, Georgia will begin to emerge as the probable SEC East Champion and as a result the Boise State chant will continue to manifest.
So are you still with me; So here are my BCS predictions
Rose Bowl
Big Ten vs Pac 12
Oregon vs --winner Oregon
Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs at large
Oklahoma State vs Boise State winner-- Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl
SEC vs at large
Alabama vs Stanford winner-- Alabama
Orange Bowl
ACC vs Big East
Ga Tech vs West Virginia winner--West Virginia
BCSNCG
LSU vs Oklahoma winner-- LSU Les Miles is 2-1 versus Bob Stoops and it will soon be 3-1
Roll Tide but Geaux Tigers
The Third
